We determined the respective weight assigned to “Box” and “On-Off” RAPTOR ratings by testing how well they predicted RAPM out of sample. Here is an executive summary. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. Opponents’ field goals made and attempted: Earlier this year, we introduced DRAYMOND, a measure of on-ball defense based on the NBA’s opponents’ shooting statistics. It’s a measure of how many points a player contributes per 100 possessions based on his team’s performance when he’s on and off the floor, accounting for the quality of his teammates and his opponents. FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR-based projections gave the Suns a less than 1 percent chance of making the postseason. We give slightly more credit to rebounds that occur (i) in bounds and (ii) not after blocked shots, since these are associated with a higher expected value for the remainder of the possession. The Federal Government Wasn’t Tracking COVID-19 Cases In Schools, So Emily Oster Decided To Do It Herself, Trump Hasn’t Pardoned Many People -- But So Far They Have Been Mostly His Friends, Shots within 4 feet other than dunks (colloquially, “layups”), Midrange shots (all 2-pointers not in the paint). RAPM can be replicated quite effectively using three types of on-court ratings.20. Teams benefit from score effects when behind in the game, conversely; that is, they are more efficient than in a tied game. Recent All-NBA, MVP and All-Star appearances. The idea is that centers are matched up against centers, power forwards against power forwards, and so forth. This should make intuitive sense: a team is less likely to step off the gas pedal in the postseason when where is more on the line. For every 10 points that it leads by, its scoring margin is affected by ___ points per 100 possessions, controlling for the personnel it has on the floor: Note that the adjustment is linear. However, because we also avoided variables that performed poorly in out-of-sample tests in constructing RAPTOR, it and PREDATOR are extremely well-correlated. mayweather_mcgregor_tweets. Note that blocks do provide some offensive value in RAPTOR when they initiate fast-break possessions. Players who are adept at inducing offensive fouls include Kyle Lowry, Ersan Ilyasova, Marcus Smart, Patrick Beverley and J.J. Barea. FiveThirtyEight publishes predictions for every NBA game. RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played, regular season and playoffs combined. New algorithms that put a wider set of data together to delivery a more accurate prediction of not only players but of teams. As you can see, RAPTOR generally loves perimeter players and wings, such as Curry, Harden, Leonard and Chris Paul, although some frontcourt players like Jokic, Anthony Davis and Draymond Green are also rated highly by the system. Contested rebounds are more valuable, although this makes less of a difference for offensive than defensive rebounds. These estimates were built by figuring out how the limited data kept in earlier eras (box score plus team data and RPM for 2001-2013, and just box score/team data … Since RAPTOR ratings reflect a player’s efficiency in a tied game, but good teams often play with a lead — which reduces efficiency — good teams will perform slightly worse than the sum of their RAPTOR ratings, and bad teams will perform slightly better than them. Despite this being a relatively noisy process, there is some predictive power (including in out-of-sample regressions) in seeing how many points and rebounds a player’s positional matchups secure. In fact, it’s essential to account for these players’ assisted field goals because they’re strongly correlated with other types of statistics, especially offensive rebounds. As Jeremias Engleman writes, when a team is behind by 20 points, it’s expected to score around 6 points per 100 possessions more than it does in a tied game, which is like “replacing an average offensive player with LeBron [James].”. Players are allowed to slightly exceed their RAPTOR-recommended number of minutes per game, but if a player is playing significantly more minutes than recommended because the team is short-handed, our projections apply a penalty to his efficiency. Season year, 1920-2018. neutral. `modern_RAPTOR_by_team.csv` contains RAPTOR data for every player broken out by team, season, and season_type since 2014, when NBA player-tracking data first became available. Powered by FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR player ratings. If a certain variable predicted RAPM well in the in-sample, six-year regression, but not in the out-of-sample, three-year regressions, that’s generally a sign that it reflects luck rather than skill or that it’s too noisy to provide for a reliable indicator of player value. In addition, stats from the playoffs were adjusted to reflect the tougher competition in the postseason. Although this is complicated by the fact that RAPTOR contains a number of variables related to shooting, usage and scoring, overall it is calibrated such that players who score at average efficiency tend to improve their RAPTORs by doing so, as opposed to not taking any shots at all. FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. Either way, they help to reveal something about how RAPTOR thinks about players. FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR says he is the best offensive player in the league. 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